2011年4月8日星期五

SENDSim: A New Platform for Understanding Behavior in Cyberspace

 
 

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于 11-4-4 通过 Armed with Science 作者:John Ohab

[There is a video that cannot be displayed in this feed. Visit the blog entry to see the video.]
By Carl Hunt, Greg Amis and Rick Raines

As reported in Armed with Science last October, DoD's Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering's Rapid Reaction Technology Office (RRTO) has been working with the U.S. Air Force Institute of Technology's Center for Cyberspace Research (CCR) on a project called, "Science Enhanced Networked Domains and Secure Social Spaces" (SENDS). The main mission of SENDS is to examine operational and security challenges the United States faces in the use of cyberspace within the global environment. The focus of these examinations is both broad and innovative. RRTO and CCR have supported this project since late 2009.

SENDS partner Icosystem Corporation is delivering a major component of the SENDS Project: a modeling and simulation platform to understand the behaviors of network users and information technologies as they interact within cyberspace. These simulations help visualize the interdependencies that arise with the convergence of these two sources of vulnerability. As the SENDS Project progresses, we've been covering developments in the new SENDS website but now that we are within four months of concluding the Pilot, we want to share the status of this task as a preview.

We call the simulation environment for the SENDS Project SENDSim. In brief, SENDSim is an agent-based simulation and experimentation environment designed to help experts better understand cyberspace security challenges by providing a platform for understanding threats, evaluating solutions, and communicating the benefits of a principled security plan to non-technical decision makers.

SENDSim can run simulations and visualize animations of malware propagation, worker behavior, and social network activity. (Image: SENDS)

SENDSim can run simulations and visualize animations of malware propagation, worker behavior, and social network activity. (Image: SENDS)

Users of SENDSim can specify network designs, assumptions, and policy parameters. SENDSim then creates a simulated network, a simulated workforce using that network and relevant policies, and a simulated malware threat (Conficker or Stuxnet, for example).

Incorporating modeling techniques from epidemiology and behavioral economics, SENDSim captures the interactions of both the behaviors of the network users and the behaviors of the malware. These behaviors include users' appreciation of cyber threats, as well as their actions, such as selecting technical strategies for daily tasks, choosing passwords, enabling and disabling features, and discussing threats and solutions with co-workers.

By the end of the pilot project in June, SENDSim will simulate: Conficker, Stuxnet, removable media and Windows file sharing use, user productivity, user technical strategy selection, infection costs, malware propagation mechanisms, attacks on control systems (e.g., SCADA), other attack scenarios (for example, distributed denials of services and data exfiltration), users making unauthorized changes to workstation configurations, and users managing their passwords.

The above video provides a tour of the graphical user interface to run simulations and visualize animations of malware propagation, worker behavior, and social network activity.

We invite you to monitor progress of the SENDS Project and SENDSim at the SENDS website, and to be a part of the "open source science" SENDS is pursuing.

Dr. Greg Amis, Icosystem, Inc., is Lead Modeler for the SENDSim task. You can find out more about Greg at the SENDS website.

Dr. Carl Hunt, Directed Technologies, Inc. is the SENDS Project Manager. You can also find more about Carl at the SENDS website.

Dr. Richard Raines is the Director of the USAF Institute of Technology's Center for Cyberspace Research.

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2010年4月13日星期二

有用的统计网站

 
 

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2010年3月23日星期二

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita用博弈论模型精确预言未来

 
 

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于 10-3-19 通过 Solidot 作者:matrix

在阿西莫夫的科幻小说《基地》系列中,银河帝国数学家哈里谢顿发明了心理史学,结合历史学、社会学及统计学去预言未来发生的重大事件。现在地球有了自己的哈里谢顿。 Bruce Bueno de Mesquita,纽约大学政治学教授和斯坦福大学Hoover学院高级研究员,在新书《The Predictioneer's Game》中,他描述了一种基于博弈论的数学模型,他声称能十分精确的预言未来。过去30年里,Bueno de Mesquita在数百个问题上作出了数千项预测,这些问题从地缘政治到个人事务。他声称成功率达到了90%。他的预言师生涯始于1979年,在研究导致战争的条件时,他设计了一个数学模型去检查人们可能作出的选择,这些选择可能导致外交争端或战争。但是这个模式没有真实数据进行检验。然而恰巧此时,美国国务院询问他对于印度政治危机的看法——印度总理Morarji Desai可能将被迫下台,而接替者可能在其联盟中产生。因为他的博士论文就是关于印度政治,因此Bueno de Mesquita同意提供帮助,他在模型中输入可能对下一届总理任命产生影响的人的名单,确定他们的偏好和影响力。他自己预测副总理Jagjivan Ram可能是接替者。然而第二天计算机给了一个出人意料的人选:模型预测Chaudhary Charan Singh将成为新总理——美国国务院也不相信这个结果,但6个月后Morarji Desai政府倒台,接替者正是Charan Sing(此人担任总理的时间并不长,从1979年7月28日到1980年1月14日)。

 
 

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2010年3月10日星期三

Google发布可视化的公开数据分析工具

 
 

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于 10-3-9 通过 Solidot 作者:matrix

Google和世界银行及其它统计资料公司合作,在Google Labs中提供可视化的数据分析工具。Google Public Data Explorer于周一正式上线。网站使用关于学校、人口、犯罪率甚至名字的公开资料来建构图表和图片,用于描述趋势。 Google也发布了一份热门搜索词列表,学校比较和失业人口是最常被搜索的问题,接下来则是人口、购物税和薪资。除了和世界银行、美国劳工统计局、美国人口局合作之外,Google的资料提供者还包括联合国经济合作与开发组织、加州教育局、欧盟统计局、美国中央疾病管制中心和美国经济分析局等单位。

 
 

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2010年3月9日星期二

Google 发布 Public Data Explror,并增加更多公众数据源

 
 

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于 10-3-8 通过 谷奥——探寻谷歌的奥秘 作者:musiXboy

去年,Google发布了公共数据搜索,让人们可以更方便的获得公共数据的统计结果,后来Google又扩充了一次数据源,加入了世界银行和全球各地人口统计等数据。今天,Google再次扩充了他们的数据源,其中包含一些公共数据提供商亲自交给Google的数据,还有Google通过Google Trends Insights for Search了解到人们想知道哪些数据后,找来的数据。

全部的数据源有80多个,具体可以看这个PDF,下面列出最热门的20个数据源,有:

  1. 学校对比
  2. 失业
  3. 人口
  4. 消费税
  5. 薪水
  6. 汇率
  7. 犯罪统计
  8. 健康统计
  9. 灾难统计
  10. GDP
  11. 姓氏
  12. 贫困率
  13. 石油价格
  14. 最低薪酬
  15. 消费物价指数,通货膨胀
  16. 死亡率
  17. 生活成本
  18. 大选结果
  19. 名字
  20. 事故,交通违法行为

Google今天还将这些数据源汇总在一起,做了一个Google Public Data Explror。作为Google Labs的一员,Google Public Data Explror可以通过自带的各种图表和地图工具帮助人们利用这80个公众数据源进行调查和统计,比如下面嵌入的这个统计数据,显示了在过去47年里大多数经济体国家的平均寿命以及每名妇女的生育人数。通过滚动条你可以看到数据在每年里的变化过程,非常实用而直观。这些生成的统计图表都来自于Google当年收购的 Gapminder FoundationTrendalyzer技术,后来Google将这些技术放到了Google Spreadsheets的Motion ChartVisualization API里。

Via Google Public Policy Blog


© musiXboy 发表于 谷奥——探寻谷歌的奥秘 ( http://www.google.org.cn ), 2010. | 1 条评论 | 永久链接 | 关于谷奥 | 投稿/爆料
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Tell them anything but the truth: they will find their own

 
 

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于 10-2-23 通过 DensityDesign | Communication Design & Complexity 作者:Gaia Scagnetti

The listener (in fables or music) or the observer (in cinema and theater) plays a fundamental role in the narration process. The narrator evokes whereas the observer interprets through his imaginary. The more qualitative is the narrator evocation, the more the observer becomes co-author of the story.

In the visualization of complex networks, the designer should use a narrative mode of though, giving to the audience a good story more than a sound argument. As the movie director, the designer aim to choose the visualization that more preserves the complexity of the environment. As a result he takes a political stance: he directs actors (the elements of a system), he decides the light design (the choice of the elements to visualize), the set designs (the imagery to evoke), the different optical lens (the power of focusing) and most important, the critical point of view of the camera (intentionality).

We will present our research in the visualization of complex systems. The paper "Tell them anything but the truth: they will find their own. How we visualize the map of the future with respect to the audience of our story" focuses on the emerging need for a narrative approach for the understanding of complex networks. We consider narrations as tools with the paramount function of myths <to find a shape, a form, in the turmoil of human experience>.

We are proud to present it at the Arts | Humanities | Complex Networks — a Leonardo satellite symposium at NetSci 2010 taking place at BarabásiLab — Center for Complex Network Research, Northeastern University in Boston, MA, on Monday, May 10, 2010.

See you there!


 
 

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2010年2月27日星期六

Follow the money: 人类(货币)流动复杂网络及其后果



 此信息的链接:
 http://www.google.com/buzz/115996558239901616313/M6zixUBAqRy/Follow-the-money-%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB-%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81-%E6%B5%81%E5%8A%A8%E5%A4%8D%E6%9D%82

2-23 Alex Han: Follow the money: 人类(货币)流动复杂网络及其后果

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kn32vavZqvg

The winners of the International Science and Engineering Visualization Challenge, sponsored by the journal Science and the US National Science Foundation (NSF). Follow the Money is a video by two students at the Research on Complex Systems group at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois. Using information from the dollar-bill tracking website Where's George, they built a picture of how people move from place to place. The video won them first place for non-interactive media.
2-23 Xinshu DONG: Very interesting video. One doubt for me is whether the flow of money actually reflects the physical movement of humans. When the movements involve a lot of humans, is it reasonable to connect them together?
2-23 Alex Han: actually human beings are connected in many means, the geological location is only one way. we are connected through the words we use, and the concepts we share. we are also connected through the products we share, and the air of course...

sometimes you call the collective movements of people's attributes, thinking, attitudes, or behaviors, as "trends", like fashionable trends, or demographic trends, or political opinion trends, or economic trends, or industry transfer trends.

The largest trend, is called "history".
上午10:22 wei wu: nice vidoe. and it is very clever to choose money as the connector.

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